Student guide International Program A.Y. 2007/08

Topics in Development Economics (Country Risk Analysis)
Aim of the course
Country risk is a multidisciplinary approach that covers financial, political and macroeconomics concepts. In a more integrated world, companies should base their global investment decisions not only on economic data, but should consider both the political and the macroeconomic environment. In this situation, country risk analysis helps corporate leaders understanding whether a particular country can pay the debt. However this analysis should be matched with a political risk analysis that tells them whether that country will pay its debt.
The course aims to provide students with some preliminary tools in country risk analysis. No specific pre-requisites are necessary, although previous course in economics, international finance or global business/political economy could be useful. The course will be interactive and involve intense student participation. Final mark is based on lecture participation (20%) and an individual essay (80%).

Lecture 1&2: Emerging Markets: main features
  • BCG Chapters 1-2
  • Material distributed during the lessons.
Lecture 3&4: Country Risk Analysis: Economic and Financial Fundamentals
  • BCG Chapter 3
Lecture 5: Country Risk Methodology: the qualitative,  structural approach
  • BCG Chapter 3
Web Site:
Lecture 6: Country Risk Methodology: Ratings
  • BCG Chapter 3
Web Site:
Lecture 7: Round Table: the Sri Lanka case
  • Material distributed during the lesson.
Seminar assessment:
Every student has to prepare an essay.
Number of words: 2000 words -excluded tables and graphs-
Deadline: 29th May 2008.
Submission: by e-mail
The student chooses a country (among the emerging markets one) and provides a qualitative assessment of its country risk profile. The analysis should cover all the aspects (social-economic-political and financial features) that we investigated during the course and should be supported by data (in form of tables and graph). As a good guideline for the essay structure, the student may refer to table 4.7 in the BCG book (pag.74-75). Finally, on the base of the depicted situation, the student determines the country’s risk and opportunity.
Reading list
  • BCG - Bouchet M, Clark E, and Groslambert B (2003): “Country Risk Assessment: A Guide to Global Investment Strategy”, The Wiley Financial Series.
  • Additional material distributed during the lessons.