Student guide Facoltą di Economia A.A. 2008/09

Topics in Development Economics (Country Risk Analysis)
Lesson timetable, Notice board, Additional material
Lecturers
HELG RODOLFO
BOTTINI NOVELLA
Aim of the course
Country risk is a multidisciplinary approach that covers financial, political and macroeconomics concepts. In a more integrated world, companies should base their global investment decisions not only on economic data, but should consider both the political and the macroeconomic environment. In this situation, country risk analysis helps corporate leaders understanding whether a particular country can pay the debt. However this analysis should be matched with a political risk analysis that tells them whether that country will pay its debt.

The course aims to provide students with some preliminary tools in country risk analysis. No specific pre-requisites are necessary, although previous course in economics, international finance or global business/political economy could be useful. The course will be interactive and involve intense student participation. Final mark is based on lecture participation (20%) and an individual essay (80%).



Syllabus
Lecture 1&2: Emerging Markets: main features
 
Reading:
·         BCG Chapters 1-2
·         Material distributed during the lessons.
 
Lecture 3&4: Country Risk Analysis: Economic and Financial Fundamentals
 
Reading:
·         BCG Chapter 3
 
Lecture 5: Country Risk Methodology: the qualitative,  structural approach
 
Reading:
·         BCG Chapter 3
Web Site:
·         http://www.coface.com/
 
Lecture 6: Country Risk Methodology: Ratings
 
Reading:
·         BCG Chapter 3
Web Site:
·         http://www.prsgroup.com/
·         http://www.fitchratings.com/
·         http://www.standardandpoors.com/
 
Lecture 7: Round Table: the Sri Lanka case
 
Reading:
·         Material distributed during the lesson.


Examinations
Seminar assessment:
 
Every student has to prepare an essay.
Number of words: 2000 words -excluded tables and graphs-
Deadline: 29th May 2008.
Submission: by e-mail
 
The student chooses a country (among the emerging markets one) and provides a qualitative assessment of its country risk profile. The analysis should cover all the aspects (social-economic-political and financial features) that we investigated during the course and should be supported by data (in form of tables and graph). As a good guideline for the essay structure, the student may refer to table 4.7 in the BCG book (pag.74-75). Finally, on the base of the depicted situation, the student determines the country’s risk and opportunity.


Reading list
BCG - Bouchet M, Clark E, and Groslambert B (2003): “Country Risk Assessment: A Guide to Global Investment Strategy”, The Wiley Financial Series.