Student guide International Program A.Y. 2009/10

Purpose of the Course is to provide students with the theoretical background necessary to the solution of industrial problems through the techniques of Operations Research. Tools for decision making under uncertainty will be presented first. Influence Diagrams and Decision Trees will be discussed through their application in Engineering and Management. Examples of optimal strategies and operational decision in industry case studies will be analyzed. The second part of the class will focus on Probabilistic Risk Assessment models. Maintenance optimization via numerical techniques such as Monte Carlo Simulation, Genetic Algorithms and Neural Networks will be presented. The last part of the course will be dedicated to the theoretical bases of the Local and Global Sensitivity Analysis of Model Output, highlighting the role of Sensitivity Analysis in supporting decision-making. Practice Sections will be offered, with the analysis of industry case studies. Students will be introduced to the use of software packages dedicated to the methodologies and problems brought up during the course.

1. Operational Problems:
- Influence Diagrams and Decision Trees
- Bayesian Decision Theory
- Multi-Attribute Utility Theory- Application to engineering and management problems
2. Reliability Applications:
- The Structure Function- The Energy Function
- Markov Chain Applications- Maintenance Optimization via numerical techniques
3. Sensitivity Analysis:
- Definition of Sensitivity Analysis and model parameter Importance
- Local Sensitivity Analysis Techniques: Elasticity and Partial Derivative Techniques, the Differential Importance Measure (DIM)
- Global Sensitivity Analysis Techniques: Pearson Correlation Coefficient, Smirnov Test, Standardized Regression Coefficients, Sobol' Variance
Decomposition Theorem and Global Sensitivity Indices
- Reliability Importance Measures: Fussell-Vesely, Birnbaum, Risk Achievement Worth.

Both the midterm and the final exam are written. The average result of the two tests, will determine the final grading. In the case of a negative result, students
will have to take a second written exam covering both tests.

- E.Borgonovo: "Quantitative Methods for Management," Milano, CUSL Edition, to appear.
- E.Borgonovo: "Problems in Quantitative Methods for Management," Milano, CUSL Editor, to appear.
- Clemen R., Making Hard Decisions: An introduction to Decision Analysis, Duxbury Press, Blement CA, USA, 1998
- Keeney R. L. and Raiffa H., Decisions with multiple objectives, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1998.
Additional Readings:
- Martz H.F. and Waller R.A., Bayesian Reliability Analysis, Second Edition, Krieger Publishing Company, Marlabar Florida, USA, 1991.
- Koller G., Risk modelling for determining Value and Decision Making, Chapman and Hall/CRC, London, 2000.
- Winston, W. L., Operations Research, Third edition, International Thomson Publishing, Duxbury Press, Belmont, CA, USA, 1993.